That's more like it.
After a disastrous 3-10-1 showing in Week 5, I bounced back with a 9-5-1 mark in Week 6, bringing my total record for the season to 40-43-5.
Getting back above the .500 mark is near -- I can smell it in the air. Let's keep the momentum rolling with my Week 7 NFL picks.
All lines made available via Bovada.
Denver Broncos (-2.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Broncos -2.5
Although only one game separates these two teams from a record standpoint, the Broncos have played better this season than their 2-4 mark indicates. Josh Rosen has provided a spark for Arizona, but if I'm going to only get 2.5 points, I'm going to have to believe the Cardinals can win and I'm simply not ready to do that -- even against a Denver that has underachieved to this point in the season.
Tennessee Titans (+7) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: Chargers -7
After being the league's surprise darling through the first four weeks, the Titans have come back down to Earth with two straight losses. The Chargers, meanwhile, are on the verge of asserting themselves as one of the top teams in the league, a status I expect them to obtain with a convincing home victory over a young Tennessee squad at Wembley Stadium in London.
Buffalo Bills (+7.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Bills +7.5
Even with Derek Anderson starting at quarterback for the Bills, I'm not ready to lay 7.5 points with this Colts team just yet. Indianapolis should win outright, but Buffalo should manage to keep the final score close enough for a cover.
New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. Chicago Bears
Pick: Patriots -3.5
The Bears' defense has me tempted to pick Chicago. But even with the Patriots on the road, this is nothing more than a bet on Bill Belichick against Mitchell Trubisky as New England appears poised to hit its typical midseason stride.
Carolina Panthers (+5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Eagles -5
Much like their Super Bowl opponent from a season ago, the Eagles seem to be bouncing back after a slow start. Carolina, meanwhile, has hit some midseason stumbles of its own, a trend I expect to continue as Carson Wentz continues to find his footing in the Philadelphia lineup.
Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins +3
I'm actually surprised the Dolphins are getting three points here -- especially at home. Even though it's hard to imagine a world where Miami is actually 5-2 through the first seven weeks of the season -- especially with Brock Osweiler now at quarterback -- I'll take what I perceive to be the better team and the points here vs. the underwhelming Lions.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. New York Jets
Pick: Vikings -3.5
As impressive as Sam Darnold has been, the Vikings need a win to keep pace is the ultra competitive NFC North. Sure, the Jets are wearing their Color Rush uniforms, which always gives me pause, but I'll take Minnesota to pick up a road victory with one of its most complete performances of the season.
Cleveland Browns (+3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Buccaneers -3
Despite their inconsistencies on defense, the Buccaneers have possessed plenty of firepower on offense, regardless of it's been Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston at quarterback. And after what I saw from the Browns on both sides of the ball a week ago against the Chargers -- at home, nonetheless -- it's just hard for me to imagine Cleveland keeping pace in what could very well be a shootout of a game.
Houston Texans (+5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Texans +5
I keep waiting for the Jaguars -- the same team that played in the AFC title game a year ago -- to come to life, but it just hasn't happened yet. at least not since they beat the Patriots in the second week of the season. And until Jacksonville shows any signs of being that team again, I'm going to have a hard time laying more than field goal, regardless of where the game is being played.
New Orleans Saints (+2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Ravens -2.5
Baltimore's bounce-back win vs. the Titans last week was exactly the type of victory I needed to see to confirm my belief that the Ravens are one of the best teams in the league. And if Baltimore really is just that, then I have no issue laying less than a field goal at home against anyone -- even Drew Brees.
Dallas Cowboys (+2) vs. Washington Redskins
Pick: Cowboys +2
Are the Cowboys good again? I'm not really sure. But I like their upside a little more than I like Washington's in a game that will have significant implications in the NFC East.
Los Angeles Rams (-10) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Rams -10
The Rams haven't covered in the past three weeks, while San Francisco has earned covers vs. Green Bay and the Chargers in that same span. And while I'm typically a big believer in the "Gambler's Fallacy," I can't help but think both of these teams are due to add a blowout to their respective records, albeit in much different ways.
Cincinnati Bengals (+6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs -6
As impressed as I've been by the Bengals this season, the Chiefs are simply too good to go against. After losing to New England last week, I'm expecting a big bounce back this week with a superb showing in primetime action.
New York Giants (+6) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Falcons -6
With 11 days between primetime games, the Giants enter Monday Night Football with plenty of rest. But unless that delay improved their play on the field or dysfunction off of it, I'll take Atlanta's offense to win this one running away.